WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump plans to establish a National Energy Council to achieve global American “energy dominance,” prioritizing increased U.S. oil and gas production and shifting away from President Biden’s climate focus.
Headed by North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Trump’s Interior Department appointee, this council will be central to Trump’s pledge to boost oil and gas drilling and sales to European and global allies.
The council will have broad authority over federal energy agencies, encompassing permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, and transportation. Its mandate includes streamlining bureaucracy, attracting private investment, and prioritizing innovation over what Trump terms “totally unnecessary regulation.”
However, Trump’s energy goals may face practical limitations. Current U.S. oil production under Biden is already significant. The government cannot compel companies to increase drilling, and higher production could lower prices and profits.
Energy analyst Kevin Book describes the push for energy dominance – a term Trump also used in his first term – as an “opportunity, not a requirement,” for the oil industry to pursue drilling projects under potentially more favorable conditions than those under Biden.
According to Book, managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners, the success of Trump’s energy dominance strategy, however defined, hinges on private sector decisions based on global supply and demand. He anticipates no immediate surge in new oil drilling activity.
Trump’s aim to increase oil supplies and lower prices is complicated by his threat of 25% import tariffs on Canada and Mexico, major U.S. oil import sources. The U.S. oil industry warns that these tariffs could raise prices and compromise national security.
“Canada and Mexico are our top energy trading partners, and maintaining the free flow of energy products across our borders is critical for North American energy security and U.S. consumers,” stated Scott Lauermann of the American Petroleum Institute.
American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, representing U.S. refineries, also opposes potential tariffs, emphasizing the reliance of American refiners on Canadian and Mexican crude oil for affordable fuel production.
Scott Segal, a former Bush administration official, notes that White House-centered energy decision-making mirrors Biden’s approach, citing Biden’s climate policy advisors. Segal, of Bracewell LLP, views Burgum as “a steady hand on the tiller” with experience in both fossil fuels and renewables.
Unlike Biden’s climate advisors, Burgum is expected to hold his White House position as a Senate-confirmed Cabinet member, Segal adds.
Dustin Meyer of the American Petroleum Institute calls the new energy council “a good thing” for the U.S. economy and trade, highlighting the value of enhanced coordination. However, he acknowledges that “market dynamics will always be the key” to any production increase.
Jonathan Elkind of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy calls energy dominance a “deliberately vague concept,” questioning the feasibility of boosting oil production in an already saturated market.
Trump’s promise of sub-$2 gasoline prices is deemed highly improbable by experts, requiring a substantial drop in crude oil prices. As of Wednesday, national gas prices averaged $3.07, down from $3.25 a year ago.
Elkind and other experts express hope that the council will expand beyond oil to focus on renewables like wind, solar, geothermal, and nuclear energy, all of which produce no greenhouse gas emissions.
“Failure to focus on climate change as an existential threat to our planet is a huge concern and translates to a very significant loss of American property and American lives,” stated Elkind, a former Obama administration official. He cites federal statistics on the cost of climate-related damage.
Trump has downplayed climate change risks, pledging to rescind unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act and halt offshore wind development. However, his November 15th announcement of the energy council mentions expanding “ALL forms of energy production” for economic growth and job creation.
This includes renewables, according to Safak Yucel of Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
“The mandate for the energy council is U.S. dominance globally, but what’s more American than American solar and American wind?” he asks, citing data showing solar energy’s cost-effectiveness.
Trump aims to significantly increase baseload power to lower electricity costs, prevent brownouts, and “WIN the battle for AI superiority.”
Burgum, in pre-appointment comments, echoed this goal, citing increased electricity demand from AI and data centers. “The AI battle affects everything from defense to health care to education to productivity as a country,″ he stated.
While Trump criticizes the climate law, experts believe repeal is unlikely, partly due to its investments and job creation in Republican districts. GOP lawmakers have urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to retain the law.
“A lot of Southern states are telling Trump, ‘We actually like renewables,’” Yucel observes, noting job growth in wind, solar, and battery power in Republican-led states.
He concludes that economically viable renewables will continue to thrive.