SEOUL, South Korea — Following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea will hold a special election on June 3 to choose his replacement, acting President Han Duck-soo announced on Tuesday.
This announcement comes after the Constitutional Court’s decision four days prior to remove Yoon from office due to his controversial declaration of martial law in December. According to South Korean law, a new president must be elected within 60 days of a president’s removal. The incoming president will serve a standard five-year term.
The election is anticipated to be highly polarized, likely forming a contest between Yoon’s conservative People Power Party and the opposition Democratic Party, which currently controls the National Assembly.
The People Power Party is facing a difficult task in regaining public trust and resolving internal conflicts stemming from Yoon’s imposition of martial law.
The main question is whether the conservatives can unite and present a viable candidate against the expected Democratic Party nominee, Lee Jae-myung, who is currently considered the leading contender.
Potential candidates
South Korea’s political parties are expected to begin their primary processes in the coming weeks to select their presidential candidates.
Lee is widely expected to be the Democratic Party’s candidate. He is a prominent figure within the party and faces no significant internal competition. Lee, who narrowly lost the 2022 election to Yoon, guided the party through a period of crisis when many members clashed with troops sent by Yoon to enter the National Assembly building and vote down martial law, and later impeached the president.
Approximately ten politicians from the People Power Party are expected to compete for their party’s nomination.
Conservatives in disarray
Yoon’s decision to enact martial law, which involved deploying armed forces in Seoul and stirred up painful memories of past military regimes, negatively impacted his party’s image, even though the party was not directly involved.
Some reform-minded members of the party openly criticized Yoon’s actions and voted for his impeachment, leading to disagreements with the party’s more traditional members who supported the president.
Yoon has a dedicated base of supporters who frequently organized large demonstrations in Seoul and other locations. Many of them hold the belief that Yoon is being targeted by a leftist opposition sympathetic to North Korea, which they claim has manipulated elections to secure a legislative majority and is plotting to remove a patriotic leader.
“The conservative party in South Korea faces considerable obstacles as it heads into the upcoming election. Unifying its base, moderates, and a fringe element driven by conspiracy theories around a single candidate in just two months will be a challenge,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
The current leadership of the party is composed of loyalists to Yoon, which is likely to perpetuate internal divisions and harm the party’s chances in the election, according to Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership.
Among the leading potential presidential candidates from the People Power Party, Labor Minister Kim Moon Soo is seen as the most supportive of Yoon. He and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo opposed Yoon’s impeachment, while former party leader Han Dong-hoon and senior party lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo supported his removal from office. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, another major candidate, has taken a neutral stance.
Choi suggested that Yoon will likely try to influence the nomination process to favor pro-Yoon figures for both the presidential nomination and party leadership positions, in order to have them defend him as he faces a criminal trial. Yoon was charged with insurrection in January, and now that he no longer has presidential immunity, he may face additional charges, such as abuse of power, which he was previously protected from.
Duyeon Kim, a senior analyst at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, stated that the People Power Party “will need to nominate a candidate who can appeal to the general public, particularly moderates, rather than just someone who can win the party’s primaries. Korean moderates and younger voters in their 20s and 30s are likely to be the deciding factor.”
Lee’s bid
Opposition leader Lee, who has previously served as a provincial governor and city mayor, is viewed by his supporters as a populist reformer. However, critics accuse him of being a demagogue who thrives on creating division and vilifying his opponents.
Lee is currently facing five separate trials on charges of corruption and other criminal offenses. If he wins the presidency, these trials will likely be suspended due to presidential immunity.
Yoon has repeatedly accused Lee’s Democratic Party of abusing its majority in parliament to obstruct his agenda, impeach high-ranking officials, and cut the government’s budget. Yoon claimed that his declaration of martial law was a last-ditch effort to gain public backing for his fight against the “wickedness” of Lee’s party.
“Many South Koreans are critical of Lee Jae-myung, believing he nearly destabilized the government for his own gain, using the legislature to pressure Yoon and portraying his own legal troubles as political persecution,” Easley said.
“Lee’s skillful maneuvering, including the removal of progressive politicians who were disloyal to him, means that he effectively controls the Democratic Party’s nomination and has the clearest path to the presidency,” he stated.