As the third U.N. Ocean Conference approaches (June 9-13, Nice, France), the need to reverse ocean damage and realize the potential of a sustainable blue economy is critical. However, this effort faces challenges due to increasing geopolitical tensions, including major power competition, trade disagreements, and a weakening of the established global order, all of which undermine trust and hinder necessary cooperation.
The concept of shared objectives is diminishing. The U.S. government has even stated its rejection of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, including “Goal 14: Life Below Water,” which is fundamental to these conferences and worldwide ocean conservation efforts. The implications extend beyond marine life, as the ocean’s condition will significantly impact life on land.
The ocean is a shared global resource and vital for life on Earth. It’s a single, connected body of water, carrying both benefits and problems across regions. The blue economy is predicted to outpace global GDP growth in the coming years, making the ocean increasingly important for improving lives globally.
To provide clean, dependable, and affordable energy, offshore wind farms, floating solar arrays, and energy derived from ocean movements should be key solutions. A low-emission international shipping fleet is essential for maintaining global trade, including the transportation of food and energy. Expanding sustainable aquaculture and responsibly managing wild fish populations are crucial for increasing food production and strengthening global supply chains. These actions will also reduce strain on land ecosystems and decrease the demand for freshwater.
Furthermore, a healthy ocean is central to combating climate change. Marine-based solutions and maritime industries could contribute significantly to achieving the Paris Agreement’s emissions reduction targets.
Reaching this potential requires greater ambition and renewed international collaboration. Positive developments include the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (2022), which aims to reverse nature loss by 2030, and the ongoing International Maritime Organization negotiations to reduce shipping emissions. However, as explored in “The Ocean: How it has Formed Our World—and will Shape our Destiny,” current geopolitical trends are counterproductive. Major countries are becoming more isolated and adversarial, while protectionism and nationalism are growing. The ocean, historically a key element in global affairs, is again at the forefront of these issues.
Nations worldwide are increasing their naval power and strengthening coastal defenses to protect their interests, trade routes, and maritime claims, and to enhance their global influence. As land resources become scarcer, competition for marine resources like fish and minerals is rising.
This tension is intensified by the shifting global demographic, economic, and diplomatic centers from the northwest to the southeast. Southeast Asia’s unique geography, as a “seascape” rather than a landscape, increases both the need for cooperation and the potential for conflict over marine territories.
The U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea is facing challenges, similar to other aspects of the rules-based international order. The U.S. has expanded its continental shelf, approved deep-sea mining without international regulations, and withdrawn from shipping emissions negotiations. China continues to dispute the 2016 ruling against its claims in the South China Sea, citing “historical rights.”
To achieve meaningful progress at the U.N. Conference in Nice, global solidarity is crucial. However, geopolitical rivalries are turning the ocean into a contested and dangerous space, which carries significant risks for sustainable growth, prosperity, and planetary stability. Now is the time for decisive action, requiring visionary, inclusive, and determined ocean leadership. Without a healthy ocean, our collective future is at risk.
Sturla Henriksen is Special Adviser, Ocean, to the U.N. Global Compact, co-chair of the G20 Ocean group under the Presidency of South Africa, and author of The Ocean: How It Has Formed Our World—and Will Shape Our Destiny (Hero/Legend Times Group, UK, 2025). The views expressed his own, not any organization.
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