Without Notice, Ohio Once Again Becomes a Swing State

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Looking for evidence that the political landscape is shifting against Republicans? Consider the $79 million the Senate GOP’s super PAC allocated this month to Ohio—a state Donald Trump won all three times he ran, and where Democrats last claimed a statewide victory in 2018. Or the reality that this staggering amount wasn’t enough to stop Washington’s conventional political forecasting from reclassifying the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” Or the fact that the Republican incumbent in the seat keeps handing digital Democratic critics material to complicate his campaign.

None of this was anticipated when Trump took office again just over a year ago. Washington insiders thought Jon Husted—appointed to the seat after J.D. Vance stepped down to be Trump’s top attack dog—would be a reliable steward who could easily win this November’s special election to complete Vance’s term. After all, Husted had held nearly every position in state politics and had been around long enough to understand how things work.

But then Democrats convinced Sherrod Brown to re-enter the race. Brown, a progressive who can authentically adopt Trump’s populist tone, was the runner-up to be Hillary Clinton’s 2016 running mate and considered a 2020 presidential bid before deciding against it. A union favorite and unpolished everyman, Brown was one of the few Ohio Democrats to win statewide—until an unexpected 2024 defeat driven more by the national mood than anything else. (Even though it was the most expensive Senate race that year, Brown still outperformed Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign by eight points.)

Even with Brown on the ballot, Republicans remained confident as recently as December that Ohio wouldn’t be a problem on the Senate map. Ohio, like Florida (another classic swing state), had stopped producing closely contested election results. Republicans had been winning every major race in Ohio for years.

Nonetheless, Republicans are now panicking about Ohio. The clearest sign came earlier this month when the Senate Leadership Fund—an outside political group with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune—released its spending plan. Of the $342 million the group plans to spend to keep Thune in his role in 2027, the largest single amount ($79 million) is earmarked for Ohio.

“Senate Leadership Fund is deploying the resources necessary to ensure Sen. Husted is elected in November and Ohioans are rid of Sherrod Brown once and for all,” said the head of that outside group, Alex Latcham.

Democrats, meanwhile, celebrated the fact that their GOP rivals recognized the trouble. “This announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous, plain and simple. Their battleground map has grown significantly, and we’re seeing clear signs of weakness: bad candidates, uninspiring messaging, and approval ratings in the gutter,” Senate Democrats’ super PAC spokesperson Lauren French said. She did not comment on how much the Senate Majority PAC planned to invest in the race.

Despite the armored truck full of cash parked at Husted’s campaign headquarters, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report reclassified the race from “Lean Republican” to a true “Toss Up” last week. (At the same time, Cook moved North Carolina and Georgia from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat,” and Nebraska from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican”—all signs of trouble for GOP candidates.)

Republicans’ main priority right now is playing defense, and no race exemplifies this better than Husted’s, who took over the seat from Vance just over a year ago.

Husted, a fixture in Ohio politics since his first campaign in 2000, is well-known in the state—at least as much as someone who’s served in the state legislature, as Secretary of State, and as Lieutenant Governor can be. Most polls give him a slight edge, but it’s a very narrow one.

While Husted is a veteran of campaign trails, he’s making rookie mistakes: a series of remarks perfect for attack ads, like saying the solution to high prices is to “earn more,” claiming Ohioans’ “work ethic is broken,” and asserting they are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.”

Last month, he also testified in a public corruption trial where former energy executives were accused of bribing a state utility regulator—resulting in higher energy costs passed on to households. Husted’s attendance at a dinner where the executives lobbied state officials made for negative headlines, but it’s important to note he was not accused of any wrongdoing. The trial ended last month with a hung jury.

Democrats have also been criticizing Husted for accepting more than $115,000 in campaign donations from an associate of disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Husted says he is donating the money he received from Les Wexner to non-political causes.

That’s not to say Brown is without his own inherent flaws. Before leaving the Senate last year, he’d been in politics since his first campaign in 1974, when he was still a Yale student. He’s a close ally of Sen. Bernie Sanders, a critic of Wall Street like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and an unapologetically liberal voice on domestic issues such as the social safety net and workers’ rights. In his last campaign, $34 million in harsh attack ads targeted Brown for his support of transgender rights. Despite decades of criticizing NAFTA and job offshoring, Republicans still see opportunities to paint Brown as just another elitist globalist who happens to be a career politician.

Most polls show Husted with a slight advantage, but Brown is dominating the fundraising race. He raised $10.1 million in the first three months of the year, while Husted raised $2.9 million. Brown has $16.5 million in reserve, compared to Husted’s $8.2 million.

However, cash in Ohio is hardly a predictor of outcomes. The last time Brown ran, he spent $101 million and his allies added another $112 million, while GOP rival Bernie Moreno spent $26 million and his allies contributed $184 million. Brown lost by nearly four points.

That’s why strategists from both parties are closely watching Ohio: it’s been a tough win for Democrats for years, but the national mood has Republicans justifiably on edge. The fact that a state Trump won three times is even a competitive race in 2026 says a lot.

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