Winter storm Blair, the first named winter storm of 2025, is bringing a significant weather warning. The storm, arriving this weekend and lasting into Monday, will severely impact the Plains, Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, bringing snow, ice, and freezing temperatures. This could create challenging conditions for up to 250 million people across 40 states.
Storm Blair is a result of a disrupted polar vortex, a system of westerly winds typically isolating the Arctic. This weekend, however, high-pressure systems are pushing the jet stream south, bringing frigid Arctic air into the lower 48 states. A high-pressure area over Greenland is further contributing to this southward movement of cold air.
The U.S. will experience substantial impacts. Saturday will see snow in the northern and central Rockies and Plains, extending potentially as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley. Hazardous driving conditions are predicted for cities like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Wichita. Lake-effect snow will add to precipitation near the Great Lakes. Sunday brings the storm eastward to West Virginia, the Appalachian Mountains, and southward into Oklahoma, impacting Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Louisville. By Monday, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Charleston, S.C., and parts of West Virginia could experience significant snowfall. Snow accumulations are expected to reach six to 12 inches in affected areas.
While snowfall will lessen early in the week, the Arctic outbreak may persist into the latter half of the month, with widespread impacts across the country. As early as January 6th, Texas and Oklahoma may see temperatures in the 20s and 30s. By mid-week, similar temperatures are possible in Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and the Appalachians. Low temperatures are projected to reach 23°F in Dallas, 33°F in New Orleans, 21°F in Atlanta, 36°F in Orlando, and 46°F in Miami. The Weather Channel forecasts temperatures as low as 0°F in parts of the Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.
The cold air will arrive in waves, keeping much of the country below average temperatures. The Midwest and mid-Atlantic are projected to be 12°F to 25°F below historical averages for at least parts of the next two weeks. All five Gulf Coast states may see snow and ice. A large area from western Nebraska to West Virginia could see three to six inches of snow. Increased snowfall will further lower temperatures due to increased albedo, reflecting sunlight back into space.
This extreme weather doesn’t negate the ongoing reality of climate change. However, it highlights the significant variations within the larger context of a warming planet, reminding us of winter’s harsh potential.