In the 2016 election, Russian operatives orchestrated rallies supporting Donald Trump on Facebook, including events labeled “Florida Goes Trump” in Fort Lauderdale and Coral Springs, as well as dueling protests at an Islamic center in Houston.
Following the 2020 election, Iran was responsible for a website containing death threats directed at U.S. election officials. Furthermore, during this year’s election, the FBI thwarted a plot by Iran to pay an assassin $1 million to kill Donald Trump.
With Election Day upon us, U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that Russia and Iran are not finished with their interference attempts.
Declassified intelligence reveals that adversaries like Russia and Iran are continuing their efforts to sow chaos in American politics. These efforts are expected to intensify in the weeks leading up to January 6th, when Congress officially counts the electoral college votes and declares a winner of the presidential election.
Jen Easterly, the head of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, stated on Monday that foreign adversaries are spreading disinformation “at a greater level than ever before.” Easterly acknowledged “low-level” attempts to disrupt election computer systems and destroy ballot drop boxes, but emphasized that the agency has not found “any evidence of activity that has the potential to materially impact the outcome of the presidential election.”
However, the primary concern lies in the post-election period. A declassified National Intelligence Council Memorandum dated October 8th warns that Iran and Russia could employ tactics that “foment or contribute to violent protests.”
The memo highlights the weeks between Election Day and the official electoral vote count on January 6th as a vulnerable period. During this time, “foreign actors” might amplify calls for violent protests and physical threats against election officials responsible for certifying election results.
The Biden administration intends to publicize these foreign interference efforts as widely as possible. In the weeks following the election, the U.S. government plans to issue direct warnings to adversaries attempting to disrupt the election and release information to the public about fake videos and false information.
Some of these countermeasures have already begun. In recent weeks, U.S. intelligence officials have declassified assessments and publicly debunked fake videos. On November 1st, U.S. intelligence agencies revealed that a Russian propaganda unit was behind a fake video purporting to show someone saying Vice President Kamala Harris was bribed to tip off a celebrity before a police raid. The same unit is also responsible for a fake video claiming to show mail-in ballots for Trump being destroyed in Pennsylvania.
These attempts to disrupt the elections have also included hacking activities. In late June and early July, Iranian-backed hackers sent emails to President Biden’s presidential campaign that included excerpts from emails illegally stolen from Trump’s campaign. The same Iranian actors, according to a U.S. intelligence security update, also sent such material to U.S. media organizations. Iranian hackers were able to use social engineering tricks against Republican and Democratic campaigns. The resulting thefts were intended to influence the U.S. election process, the intelligence community concluded. Iran’s objective is to “stoke discord and undermine confidence” in U.S. elections, the security update states.
Despite these efforts, the intelligence agencies conclude that while foreign adversaries may try to spread lies about the election, they won’t be able to manipulate the official results. Voting machines aren’t connected to the Internet or each other, they say, and security measures in place are expected to ensure any attempts at tampering would be detected.