Turkey is once again in a state of turmoil. Ekrem Imamoglu, the Mayor of Istanbul and a key figure in the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition party, was initially detained and then formally arrested on March 23. The charges against him include “establishing and managing a criminal organization, taking bribes, extortion, unlawfully recording personal data, and rigging a tender,” which Imamoglu has dismissed as a “sham”. He has also been suspended from his mayoral duties. If convicted, as anticipated, he will be barred from running for President.
Despite these events, the CHP, denouncing the arrest as a political maneuver, proceeded with its scheduled primary and rally for the 2028 election. Simultaneously, protests have erupted in response. Police are attempting to control these demonstrations in Istanbul, the largest city; Ankara, the capital; Izmir; and other locations throughout the country.
This situation is not new. Erdogan has held power for 22 years and intends to continue doing so. He has consolidated his government’s control over the military, which faced a coup attempt in 2016, the judicial system, and the media. Given this context, the arrest of Imamoglu, a strong potential challenger to Erdogan, is not unexpected. After Imamoglu’s initial election as Istanbul’s mayor in 2019, Erdogan alleged electoral fraud and demanded a rerun. However, Imamoglu won the second election by an even larger margin, and the CHP now controls every major city in Turkey.
Erdogan believes he can weather the protests, as he has done in the past. In 2013, when his government announced plans to redevelop Istanbul’s Gezi Park, one of the city’s few green spaces, into an Ottoman-era military barracks and a shopping mall, widespread protests broke out. The harsh police response to those camping in the park ignited significant national protests. Erdogan allowed the protests to subside, and now, with a stronger grip on the country, he likely feels confident in his ability to manage the current situation.
Despite this, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel and other opposition figures are working to keep Imamoglu’s situation in the spotlight by mobilizing the CHP’s 1.7 million members. On March 24, Ozel called for a boycott of media outlets that refuse to cover the protests, reiterating accusations that Erdogan is abusing state power to undermine Turkish democracy. However, Erdogan’s track record of suppressing dissent suggests that these protests are unlikely to pose a serious threat to his government.
As of March 27, nearly 1,900 protesters have been arrested since Imamoglu’s detention. Erdogan has accused the protesters and organizers of inciting unrest to “disturb the peace and polarize our people.” While the government has largely permitted mass protests in Istanbul, where hundreds of thousands have gathered, it appears poised to suppress demonstrations elsewhere in the country by any means necessary. Additionally, there are efforts underway to silence opposition voices on social media.
Erdogan faces limited international pressure to change his course. The European Commission has issued a statement urging Erdogan’s government to “respect fundamental rights and freedoms,” but lacks real leverage. Turkey’s President maintains a strong relationship with Donald Trump. Moreover, those seeking stability in the Middle East need Erdogan’s help in stabilizing the new government in Syria, and Europe requires Turkey, a NATO member, to support its security guarantees for a new security architecture.
Imamoglu’s arrest represents another significant step towards authoritarianism in Turkey, where democracy was already limited.