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Donald Trump’s approval ratings are currently among the lowest he has seen while holding office. Considering his historical unpopularity, this is significant.
During most of his first term, Trump relied on strong economic performance and border security to balance out his controversial behavior. However, recent polls assessing his first 100 days back in office indicate that his support in these areas is declining. In fact, these weakening pillars are contributing to his overall decline as he pursues more radical policies.
Recent polls show Trump performing poorly on economic management. A Reuters poll found his approval rating at just 37%. While his immigration numbers aren’t as bad, they’re still low amidst a deportation surge that has affected both U.S. citizens and legal residents.
His disapproval ratings have steadily risen since his return to the White House, reaching 52% in a New York Times average as of Thursday. Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush all had better ratings at similar points in their presidencies. Trump 2.0 finds little comfort in surpassing Trump 1.0’s numbers from eight years ago. (This excludes a harsh Fox News poll from Wednesday that places him just within his first-term numbers’ margin of error.)
Trump’s polling decline this century is unmatched by any other U.S. President. Furthermore, his starting point wasn’t great either; his second term began with the second-worst numbers of any modern President, only spared by his initial term. You’d have to go back to 1953 to find a first-time President with worse numbers (Dwight D. Eisenhower, a political newcomer).
The latest polls for The Economist and YouGov give Trump a negative 13-point approval rating—a three-point drop in one week. (Biden had an 11-point positive rating at the same point in his term.)
According to Pew’s latest polling, Trump is viewed negatively by nearly every demographic group except Republicans and those who voted for him. Men, women, people of color, college graduates and non-graduates all have a negative view of him. He is not viewed positively on any issue, including immigration, trade, public health, the economy, foreign policy, or tax policy.
The reason for Trump’s declining popularity isn’t simple, but the economy is a key factor. His tariff disputes have unsettled markets. His increasing trade war is causing Wall Street to regret its support. His mass deportations are creating labor shortages for employers and overwhelming the courts. His dismantling and restructuring of the government projects instability. A new Gallup poll this week showed the worst economic confidence levels since 2001, when the question was first asked.
Trump’s initial 12-point advantage on the economy has turned into a 12-point deficit, a significant shift affecting about a quarter of voters, according to Economist/YouGov data.
A similar decline is seen in the same poll’s immigration question. An initial 11-point net positive has become a 5-point net negative in that Economist/YouGov survey.
In the new Pew poll, immigration is seen as Trump’s best accomplishment, approved by about 20% of Americans. It’s the only area where Trump is above water, although Fox News data hints at problems, with just 47% approving and 48% disapproving.
When asked about their biggest criticism of his term so far, 22% of adults told Pew that it’s his governing style.
Trump’s fading popularity doesn’t heal the wounds he’s inflicting on Washington, but it does offer hope for Democrats who have struggled to counter his actions that undermine the rule of law, the economy, or the government itself. Politically independent voters, crucial in elections, have become a major weakness in Trump’s coalition. According to Quinnipiac polling, the disapproval rate among independent voters has risen from 53% in January to 65% today. A 12-point swing with independents is a game-changer and should make Republicans consider whether Trump’s popularity can protect them in the next election.
There are also warning signs among Republicans. A Fox poll asked GOP voters about their outlook for this second term, and 75% said they were “encouraged” about the next four years. While seemingly good, 84% of these same voters expressed the same sentiment during Trump’s first term.
If this continues, the Capitol groundskeepers may need to prepare the Speaker’s suite for a new occupant, particularly given the Democrats’ strong fundraising this cycle. Republicans currently hold a narrow seven-seat majority in the House. So far, GOP lawmakers have deferred to the belief that only Trump could save them from primary losses. However, these latest numbers suggest he may be adding to their problems.
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