Trump Is Plummeting—and Democrats Still Risk Blowing It

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Donald Trump faces significant difficulties.

Survey after survey reveals his lowest approval ratings to date. This past weekend, record numbers of people demonstrated in the streets, marking the most extensive single day of political protest in the country’s 250-year history. The Department of Homeland Security stays closed due to his Republican allies in Congress failing to agree on a budget. Proposals such as a West Wing ballroom and a Miami skyscraper for a presidential library are widely ridiculed. Gasoline costs are approaching $5 per gallon, consumer trust is plummeting, and the combined U.S.-Israeli military action in Iran continues to be highly unpopular.

Regarding state legislative seats? Democrats have gained 30 seats over the past 15 months, whereas Republicans have failed to gain any.

Nevertheless, Democrats may still fail to meet the soaring expectations of their base as they approach the November elections. A “Blue Wave” appears ready to crest, but not due to any actions taken by the party itself. Instead, the structural issues that plagued Democrats in 2024 persist. Furthermore, their choice last year to postpone an internal review of Kamala Harris’s defeat to Trump symbolizes the Democrats’ ongoing reluctance to confront their challenges directly.

“It isn’t as if our party is widely liked,” states Mandela Barnes, the former Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor seeking the state’s highest office. “Voters aren’t enthusiastic about supporting a candidate solely because they are a Democrat. We need to be honest with ourselves.”

Barnes is not the only Democrat attempting to maneuver through this difficult landscape. Voters are dissatisfied with the current leadership but are not thrilled by the opposition either. “I don’t believe you are misinterpreting the situation,” Barnes remarks regarding the national sentiment. “It feels insurmountable.”

Similar to many in his party currently, Barnes observes that voters are driven more by opposition than by support. “The key is who will step up to fight. People currently feel powerless. They believe their voices are irrelevant.”

This anxiety is what keeps Democratic strategists awake at night: Republicans controlling the House, Senate, and White House have dismal polling numbers, yet simply being a Not Republican may not be sufficient to defeat them. Regarding party affiliation, surveys indicate that “none of the above” is the most common identification.

The reality is even more concerning. Even as Trump’s poll numbers collapse, the percentage of Democrats in the population continues to shrink. In Florida, where party registration is mandatory, there are now 5.5 million Republicans compared to 4 million Democrats, a drastic shift from 2016 when there were 4.6 million Republicans and 4.9 million Democrats—yet Trump won the state in both instances.

While Nate Silver’s polling data shows a generic Democratic candidate performing roughly 5 points better than a GOP opponent, this is far from a guaranteed victory—especially considering the extent of gerrymandering in House districts today. After all, the respected Cook Political Report identifies only 17 House races this year as genuine toss-ups.

To provide context for this 5-point advantage, the figure was nearly 7 points at this same time in 2018, when Democrats gained 41 House seats. Four years prior, Democrats held a lead of just over 1 point and lost nine House seats. In 2010, when Democrats lost 63 House seats, they were trailing by only 2 points.

Democrats need to gain a net of three seats to secure the House majority, but require four seats to take the Senate. The possibility of Democrats completely flipping Congress may depend on the candidates selected in states such as Maine, Michigan, and Iowa.

Put differently: Democrats are still on track for a successful election year but risk being seen historically as having missed an opportunity for a landslide victory. Millions protesting in the streets demonstrate strength but offer no assurances, particularly with a complex array of contentious issues—such as environmental protections, reproductive rights, government accountability, foreign affairs, LGBTQ equality, and economic instability—all combined into a flood of signage.

The core issue is that the party has lacked a clear identity since the Obama administration. For over a decade, nothing has successfully unified the Democratic identity, as the gap between corporate liberals and grassroots progressives has proven unbridgeable. Ideological, generational, and regional conflicts have intensified to the point where Axios published what many Democrats have privately admitted for over a year regarding their next presidential nominee: it must be “a straight, white, Christian man.”

More pressing, however, are this year’s midterm elections, which historically tend to disadvantage the party holding the presidency. This is why Barnes, currently competing in a close Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s open gubernatorial seat, finds a silver lining in the fact that the GOP frontrunner is Rep. Tom Tiffany, who must campaign on his legislative record. “Selling a congressional candidacy is difficult given the hardships people are facing.”

However, a political party cannot sweep elections nationwide without the necessary funding. While Democrats hold a fundraising edge in competitive races, incumbency offers distinct advantages—primarily the ability to quickly grant favors. The Republican campaign apparatus outperformed its Democratic counterparts in fundraising last year. Additionally, Trump remains a visceral political force capable of mobilizing millions.

The critical question for Democrats as the election season approaches is whether Trump’s influence will draw voters back to his side this autumn or drive them toward the Democrats. Joe Biden secured the 2020 nomination by leveraging the latter strategy, using the dangers of Trumpism to unify his party. This year’s indicators suggest a favorable climate for Democrats, reminiscent of 2006 when voters flipped 31 House seats and elected Nancy Pelosi as the first female Speaker. However, it is also instructive to compare their position to the GOP’s in 2022, when Republicans held a generic poll lead of just under 4 points; the anticipated “Red Wave” that year proved illusory, with Republicans gaining only nine House seats and losing a Senate seat.

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