By the close of 2024, the growing excitement surrounding quantum computing was evident, even to those only casually following technology news. This technology marks a revolutionary change in information processing, using quantum physics to tackle problems that even the most powerful traditional computers can’t solve.
For example, in March 2024, Quantinuum revealed its ability to construct a large-scale quantum computer. The following month, IBM, Microsoft, and Boeing all announced significant advancements in their quantum research at . To conclude the year, Google introduced its , a major step forward in the pursuit of practical quantum computing, in December. Public enthusiasm was rapidly increasing.
However, in January at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that he didn’t foresee quantum computing being “very useful” for another 15 to 30 years. Three months later, he before quantum experts, but his remarks fueled ongoing discussions within the industry and among investors regarding the current state and future direction of quantum computing innovation.
While many still anticipate true commercial quantum computing in three to five years, we, as active participants, respectfully disagree. The quantum era is not decades away, nor is it just a few years away. It has already begun.
A Sudden Breakthrough is Unlikely
This difference in opinion might stem from our tendency to expect technology to arrive with a grand product unveiling. For personal computing, it was the Apple II in 1977, the first PC ready for everyday consumers. For the internet, it was Netscape Navigator in 1994, which made the web accessible to millions and ignited the digital revolution. Quantum computing, however, will evolve differently, in a less obvious and more decentralized manner.
Don’t expect to find a quantum computer at your local electronics store or a groundbreaking app. The transformation will be subtle, integrated into the core systems of science, logistics, healthcare, and finance. Rather than a single defining moment, progress will be marked by performance gains, problem solving, and lasting value creation.
It’s easy to underestimate the progress made unless you’re directly involved in developing quantum computers. However, a closer look reveals that the technology is on the verge of widespread industrial application, as commercial users increasingly recognize its true potential.
For instance, global pharmaceutical firms are advancing both disease research and quantum-based drug discovery. In the automotive and aerospace sectors, companies are leveraging quantum computing to enhance hydrogen fuel cell catalysts and electric battery performance. Businesses like ours are currently utilizing quantum hardware to create genuinely random encryption keys, boosting system security against both current and future quantum-enabled threats.
These are not just theoretical applications; they are real, commercially viable initiatives that are creating value. Quantum use cases are being developed in aerospace, energy, financial services, and national security, not as distant goals, but as practical competitive tools, and in some instances, they are already surpassing traditional methods.
If you define the beginning of a product’s commercial era as the moment it starts generating value, then that moment has already passed. The examples above, and countless others from this emerging industry, demonstrate that quantum computing is already creating value for commercial organizations.
Quantum software and hardware have both been advancing rapidly over the past year and a half, mirroring the early days of traditional computing. It wasn’t long ago that many believed 100-qubit quantum computers were a decade away. However, earlier this year, Microsoft introduced the first quantum processor based on topological qubits.
Governments around the world are recognizing this and investing in these efforts. According to , China, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea are the leading nations in public quantum technology investment, while many others are also funding initiatives, promoting innovation and producing tangible results. Universities are launching quantum engineering programs, venture capital is flowing into the sector, workers are transitioning to quantum-related roles, and the commercial quantum computing ecosystem is quickly taking shape.
In short, despite claims to the contrary, the quantum revolution is underway. For developers, investors, and policymakers, delaying investment, testing, and adoption of these new technologies risks falling behind competitors and adversaries. Early adopters of quantum computing are already securing patents, building infrastructure, developing software platforms, and establishing standards. Those who remain on the sidelines risk losing their first-mover advantage in one of this century’s most transformative technological breakthroughs.
Quantum computing is more than just a tool; it represents a national capability. Leading countries will attract talent, secure data, and define the regulation, protection, and deployment of this new technology. Those who lag in quantum computing investment may struggle to catch up in areas like cybersecurity, energy modeling, drug development, and defense. This isn’t a hypothetical scenario or a distant prospect; it’s happening now and has been for some time.
The quantum computing leaders of tomorrow are building and commercializing today. While others debate, the opportunity belongs to those who view quantum as a strategic imperative rather than a future possibility. If you’re managing a business, shaping a research agenda, managing a portfolio, or establishing national policy, now is the time to engage.