A neighbor’s aggression fueled by territorial ambitions. A blatant disregard for international legal norms. A disagreement involving critical minerals, reminiscent of disputes with the Trump administration.
This isn’t about Ukraine; it’s a description of the unfortunate situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwanda supported a rebellion in Congo in 2021, marking the fifth such instance in three decades. The conflict intensified in January, with Rwandan forces and their M23 rebel allies threatening to seize Bukavu and Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo and home to 3 million residents.
Similar to Russia’s justifications for its actions, Rwanda asserts it’s protecting an ethnic minority, the Tutsi, present in both countries. Echoing Vladimir Putin, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, also a Tutsi, claims his nation faces critical security threats. However, Rwanda’s motives have been widely questioned.
The Congo crisis has displaced numerous people since the start of the year and resulted in fatalities. Humanitarian organizations are struggling to provide food and shelter, especially after USAID significantly reduced its $800 million aid to the Congo, a considerable portion of the country’s aid budget. The crisis also jeopardizes the stability of the Congolese government in Kinshasa and neighboring Burundi, which has deployed troops to assist Congo. Without intervention, this conflict could destabilize the entire central African region.
Unlike the response to Ukraine, the international community initially showed limited engagement with the Congo crisis. For three years, the U.K. and the E.U. increased aid to Rwanda, despite its support for the M23. The U.S. remained Rwanda’s largest donor. The small developing nation, with a population of 14 million, has successfully positioned itself as valuable, even essential, to Western powers. It has sent troops to northern Mozambique, where a jihadist insurgency endangers significant French and Italian gas ventures, and controversially offered to host asylum seekers deported from the U.K. and Denmark.
Nevertheless, the West has substantial influence. While Rwanda has diversified its income sources, including increasing mineral exports to over $1 billion, largely believed to originate from the Congo, it depends on maintaining its standing with foreign donors.
In 2012, the Obama Administration played a crucial role in resolving a similar crisis involving Rwanda’s support of the M23 rebels by cutting aid and dispatching a senior diplomat to mediate a peace agreement. Although the U.S. has reduced aid and sanctioned senior Rwandan officials this time, more can be done, such as imposing visa restrictions, issuing business and travel warnings, and urging the World Bank to halt development projects.
The private sector also has a responsibility. Soccer teams like PSG, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich are inadvertently participating in sportswashing by advertising “Visit Rwanda” on their jerseys and in their stadiums. Celebrities, including Naomi Campbell, Tony Blair, Natalie Portman, and Akon, have visited Rwanda in recent years, often posing with President Kagame. Notably, John Legend performed in Kigali shortly after the M23 attack on Goma and Bukavu. In response to criticism, he stated that he doesn’t believe in punishing the people of Rwanda for disagreements with their leaders.
Increased pressure on Rwanda could lead to a short-term resolution of the Congo crisis. Belgium, Rwanda’s former colonial power, engaged in discussions with the country on Monday regarding its involvement in the Congo. The E.U. also imposed sanctions on Rwanda on the same day for its incursion into eastern Congo and the exploitation of its mineral resources.
The hope is that these measures will first bring about a ceasefire, compelling Rwandan forces and the M23 to withdraw from eastern Congo, followed by an agreement with the M23 rebels that respects Congolese sovereignty. Kagame and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi met in Qatar on Tuesday and called for a “cessation of hostilities” in eastern Congo, but it remains uncertain whether the M23 will comply, especially after withdrawing from peace talks earlier in the week.
However, this recurring cycle of Rwandan-backed rebellions demands a more sustainable solution. The persistent governance challenges in the Congo cannot be ignored.
The Congolese army, numbering 130,000 and supported by Burundians, local militias, and a regional force comprising South Africans, Malawians, and Tanzanians, was defeated by a combined Rwandan and M23 force of approximately 10,000 to 14,000. Some Congolese politicians and religious leaders have incited hate speech against the Congolese Tutsi community, from which many M23 leaders originate. In many respects, Kinshasa’s challenges are self-inflicted.
Congolese leaders often resort to scapegoating and blaming Rwanda for their problems. However, they also need to introspect. The ongoing suppression of the opposition and Tshisekedi’s attempts to alter term limits to remain in power have driven some opponents to align with the M23 and Rwanda. Neglect of the security services has fostered corruption and disarray within the army and police. Ultimately, the Congolese people must address the pervasive issues of corruption and poor governance, particularly within the security forces, a long-standing demand of Congolese protest movements.
The primary challenge lies in transforming a conflict-driven economy into one of peace. Historically, Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi coexisted peacefully. In the 1970s and 80s, they established a regional bank that invested in agriculture, as well as an electricity company. Even during the recent conflict, officials from all three countries continued to manage a hydroelectric dam on their shared border. Currently, billions of dollars worth of gold, tin, and tantalum are smuggled to Congo’s neighboring countries annually. These countries could collaborate on refining and tracing these minerals, turning them into a source of growth rather than a cause of conflict.
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