Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, within just 20 months, dramatically altered the power dynamic between Israel and Iran, its primary regional adversary, through a combination of audacity, determination, and favorable circumstances. However, his most significant achievement might prove to be his success in persuading President Donald J. Trump regarding the necessity of attacking Tehran with the full might of the Israeli military.
According to two Israeli officials involved in discussions between the two sides, Netanyahu’s success in securing Trump’s cooperation can be attributed to a series of calculated strategic decisions. The initial action occurred on February 4, when the Israeli Premier visited the White House for the first time since Trump’s return to office. Seated around the extensive table in the Cabinet Room, Netanyahu reminded Trump that Iran had orchestrated a plot to assassinate him, as per one of the officials present at the meeting. He then proceeded through a detailed slide presentation outlining what he perceived as Iran’s progress toward crossing the nuclear threshold: an increasing highly enriched uranium stockpile and advancements in its centrifuge technology. “Look, Donald,” Netanyahu stated, “this must be addressed, because they’re advancing rapidly.” He then paused for dramatic effect, looking directly into Trump’s eyes. “You cannot allow a nuclear Iran on your watch.”
It appeared to make an impression. Yet, Trump was clearly unprepared to authorize a direct Israeli attack on Iran. He expressed a desire to attempt diplomacy first. After all, he had been elected on the promise to end wars, not initiate them. And he had enlisted his long-time associate, real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, to facilitate a deal with Tehran. “Let’s pursue discussions,” he informed Netanyahu, according to the official who was present.
Reluctantly, Netanyahu agreed to grant Trump the time and latitude to ascertain if an agreement was achievable. Ultimately, Trump’s team established a 60-day framework to solidify the parameters of an accord. Israeli officials contend that allowing negotiations to continue until the deadline was essential because when Iran surpassed it, Trump grew comfortable with Israel’s proposed military strategies. “It demonstrated to Trump that we have no one to engage with,” the official tells TIME, that “it was a deception on the part of the Iranians.”
Such is the account from the Israelis. However, Trump has yet to fully explain his , from a determined dealmaker to a potential participant in the assault on Tehran. The White House did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
Just weeks prior, Trump acknowledged that he had cautioned Netanyahu against military action while diplomatic efforts persisted. Nevertheless, as talks progressed, Netanyahu was preparing blueprints for a comprehensive attack on Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He received some assistance along the way. On May 31, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran was , a violation of a 2019 agreement with the agency. The Israelis then shared intelligence with Trump, which they claimed indicated Iran was intentionally delaying talks to clandestinely acquire components for a nuclear arsenal, according to the Israeli officials. “They were using these talks with Steve to advance to a point where they’d be able to say, ‘We’re there, we’re a day away,’” one official states.
Not all Americans were convinced. U.S. intelligence agencies believed, as Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard informed Congress in March, that Tehran had not made a decision to construct a bomb. But once Trump’s 60-day window had closed, the Israelis capitalized on the President’s frustrations. Iran was on the verge of possessing a nuclear weapon within months, they asserted. The Israelis informed the Americans that they would strike Iranian targets in the early morning. Within hours, Iran retaliated, resulting in the deaths of three civilians in central Israel. But soon, Israel managed to establish dominance over Iran’s airspace. “In two days, we’ve eliminated a third of their arsenal,” states Mascha Michelson, an IDF spokesperson.
Trump officials indicate that ideally, Israel would compel Tehran to return to the negotiating table and accept a permanent cessation of their nuclear program. Some of Trump’s allies, including Stephen Bannon and Tucker Carlson, are apprehensive that Israel will draw the U.S. military into the conflict.
Israel’s ultimate objective remains undefined. Netanyahu has stated that his goal is not regime change, but that it could nonetheless occur. Even the Prime Minister’s aides are unsure of the final outcome, but they are preparing for further conflict. “There’s been a number of surprises that we pulled off,” says one of the officials. “There are probably some more surprises that we have up our sleeve.”
In any case, it appears Netanyahu has succeeded in winning Trump over to his perspective on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. When questioned on June 17 about Gabbard’s testimony, Trump responded, “I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close.”