BERLIN — Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s conservative opposition, secured a weak victory in Sunday’s national election. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw its support double, marking the strongest performance for a far-right party since World War II, according to projections.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged defeat for his center-left Social Democrats, describing the election result as “bitter.” Projections from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF indicated his party would finish third, achieving its worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election.
Merz expressed his hope to form a coalition government by Easter, a task that is expected to be challenging.
A discontented nation
The election was held seven months ahead of schedule after Scholz’s unpopular coalition fell apart in November, following three years of increasing internal conflict. Widespread dissatisfaction and a lack of enthusiasm for any candidate characterized the political landscape.
The campaign was largely focused on concerns about the prolonged stagnation of Europe’s largest economy and the pressure to control migration – an issue that caused disagreement after Merz recently advocated for a stricter approach. The election took place amidst growing uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine and the relationship between Europe and the United States.
Germany, the most populous nation in the 27-member European Union and a key NATO member, has been Ukraine’s second-largest supplier of weapons, after the U.S. It will play a crucial role in shaping the continent’s response to upcoming challenges, including the Trump administration’s assertive foreign and trade policies.
Projections, based on exit polls and initial counting, showed support for Merz’s Union bloc at approximately 28.5%, while the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnered about 20.5% – roughly twice its 2021 result.
Scholz’s Social Democrats were projected to receive just over 16% of the vote, significantly lower than the previous election and below their previous post-war low of 20.5% in 2017. The environmentalist Greens, the remaining partner in the outgoing government, were projected to receive about 12%.
Among three smaller parties, the hard-left Left Party improved its position, potentially winning up to 9% of the vote after a notable recovery. The pro-business Free Democrats, who were the third party in the collapsed government, appeared likely to lose their parliamentary seats with about 4.5%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, was near the 5% threshold required to secure seats.
A difficult task for the winner
Whether Merz will have a majority to form a coalition with Scholz’s Social Democrats, or whether he’ll need a second partner (likely the Greens), depends on the BSW’s success in entering parliament. The conservative leader stated that “the most important thing is to re-establish a viable government in Germany as quickly as possible.”
“I am aware of the responsibility,” Merz said. “I am also aware of the scale of the task that now lies ahead of us. I approach it with the utmost respect, and I know that it will not be easy.”
“The world out there isn’t waiting for us, and it isn’t waiting for long-drawn-out coalition talks and negotiations,” he told cheering supporters.
The Greens’ candidate for Chancellor, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, suggested that Merz should moderate his tone after a contentious campaign.
“We have seen the center is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” said Habeck. “Now he must see that he acts like a Chancellor.”
The Greens suffered the least from being part of Scholz’s unpopular government. The Social Democrats’ general secretary, Matthias Miersch, implied that their defeat wasn’t surprising: “this election wasn’t lost in the last eight weeks.”
A delighted far-right party doesn’t have a partner
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla told cheering supporters that “we have achieved something historic today.”
“We are now the political center and we have left the fringes behind us,” he said. The party’s strongest previous showing was 12.6% in 2017, when it first entered the national parliament.
The party’s candidate for Chancellor, Alice Weidel, stated that it is “open for coalition negotiations” with Merz’s party, and that “otherwise, no change of policy is possible in Germany.” Merz has consistently ruled out working with AfD, as have other mainstream parties—and he reiterated this in a televised post-election exchange with Weidel and other leaders.
Weidel suggested AfD wouldn’t have to make many concessions to secure a theoretical coalition, arguing that the Union largely copied its program and deriding its “Pyrrhic victory.”
“It won’t be able to implement it with left-wing parties,” she said. If Merz ends up forming an alliance with the Social Democrats and Greens, “it will be an unstable government that doesn’t last four years, there will be an interim Chancellor Friedrich Merz and in the coming years we will overtake the Union.”
Merz dismissed the idea that voters wanted a coalition with AfD. “We have fundamentally different views, for example on foreign policy, on security policy, in many other areas, regarding Europe, the euro, NATO,” he said.
“You want the opposite of what we want, so there will be no cooperation,” Merz added.
Scholz condemned AfD’s success, stating, “that must never be something that we will accept. I will not accept it and never will.”
More than 59 million people in the nation of 84 million were eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, who will take their seats under the glass dome of Berlin’s landmark Reichstag building.
—Associated Press journalists Kirsten Grieshaber, Vanessa Gera and Stefanie Dazio in Berlin contributed.
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