BEIJING — The annual National People’s Congress (NPC), a significant political event in China, is commencing this week. It gathers the country’s top officials and numerous regional leaders to formally approve resolutions already determined by the Communist Party of China.
While the NPC functions as a rubber-stamp parliament, its meetings and assemblies, which typically span approximately a week, remain crucial. The NPC serves to communicate the government’s key objectives for the upcoming year and to disseminate directives to party members and functionaries nationwide.
Leadership messaging remains consistent with previous years, emphasizing the importance of fostering innovation and boosting domestic consumption.
Key questions include how the government will balance these dual objectives and whether these measures will be sufficient to revitalize the economy. Furthermore, the extent to which the government will mitigate the impact of potential future economic challenges remains a concern.
As this year marks the conclusion of China’s current five-year plan, experts will be closely monitoring the government’s priorities for the next plan, spanning from 2026 to 2030.
Here’s what to watch for at this year’s event:
What is China’s economic growth target?
The NPC begins on Wednesday, with the Premier, China’s chief economic official, unveiling the economic growth target for the year.
Analysts anticipate a target of around 5%, mirroring the previous two years and slightly below the 5.5% target set in 2022. Achieving this would be significant, considering China’s ongoing economic adjustments.
Trade tensions with the U.S. under President Trump also add uncertainty. After Trump’s recent tariff increase on Chinese imports, projections from the Conference Board suggest a lower growth rate of 4.6% for this year.
What are the government’s priorities?
A recent commentary from Xinhua News Agency indicated that boosting domestic demand and promoting scientific and technological innovation would be prioritized.
Increased government support for the private sector is also expected to stimulate growth.
President Xi Jinping’s meeting with business leaders in February signaled high-level support for the private sector. Furthermore, the Congress will deliberate on a draft bill aimed at creating a fairer and more equitable business environment for private enterprises.
China has already implemented various measures to bolster the economy. However, these efforts have generally fallen short of expectations for a larger stimulus, and analysts are moderating their expectations for the Congress.
Jacob Gunter of the Mercator Institute for China Studies suggests that significant policy shifts away from industrial policy and towards substantially boosting consumption are unlikely.
Instead, experts believe that leaders will maintain their focus on promoting innovation to enhance China’s self-reliance.
According to Gunter, the primary objective of the economy is no longer to improve household incomes and expand the middle class.
He argues that China’s economy is now geopolitically oriented, with technology and industry taking precedence over development.
Where is China’s diplomacy headed?
While Premier Li is expected to address foreign policy, Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s annual press conference will likely receive more attention.
His address will be closely scrutinized to understand China’s position on U.S.-China relations under Trump. Following the initial tariffs imposed by the U.S., China responded with tariffs on American coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine cars.
According to Neil Thomas and Jing Qian of the Asia Society Policy Institute, China’s response to the initial U.S. tariffs was measured, signaling a willingness to negotiate while demonstrating a readiness to escalate if necessary.
They also suggest that President Xi may use speeches during closed-door meetings to convey messages on bilateral relations, as he did in the past when he identified the “three major global changes.”
China’s relations with Russia and its stance on the Ukraine war will also be closely monitored. Recently, Wang Yi stated that a “window for peace is opening” in Ukraine and that China supports all efforts towards peace, including the recent consensus reached by the U.S. and Russia.
What does the National People’s Congress do?
The NPC comprises approximately 3,000 delegates from China’s provinces, ministries, the People’s Liberation Army, party organizations, and various groups representing workers and other interests.
Their role is largely symbolic, as the body lacks genuine legislative power. Votes are typically unanimous or near-unanimous, formalizing decisions already made by Communist Party leaders in private.
Nonetheless, the NPC offers a unique opportunity to understand the central government’s priorities and objectives. Reports and speeches delivered during the Congress can provide insights into the future direction of government policy.
The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body, will convene concurrently. Its members include business leaders, athletes, academics, religious leaders, and representatives of ethnic groups. The simultaneous meetings of the NPC and CPPCC are known as the Two Sessions.
“`