TEL AVIV, Israel — The recent period of relative calm was shattered on Tuesday when Israel launched numerous attacks throughout the Gaza Strip. According to Palestinian hospital sources, the strikes have resulted in over 400 deaths, including women and children. Israel has stated that the operation has no set end date and is expected to escalate, leading to concerns that the 17-month-old conflict could fully resume.
Here’s a breakdown of the events leading up to the strikes and potential future developments.
What happened to the ceasefire?
The ceasefire, established in mid-January, was structured as a three-stage plan. The initial stage concluded two weeks prior to the recent escalation. Israel hesitated to engage in significant discussions regarding the second stage, which was intended to establish a lasting ceasefire, complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the return of all hostages seized by Hamas during its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which initiated the war.
As per the agreement, reached after over a year of negotiations facilitated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, the ceasefire was meant to remain in effect while negotiations for the second phase were ongoing.
During the first phase, Hamas released 25 living hostages and the remains of eight others in exchange for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces also retreated to buffer zones within Gaza, and hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians returned to northern Gaza. The agreement stipulated that further hostage releases would only occur during the second phase.
Hundreds of aid trucks had been entering daily. But two weeks ago, to the territory’s around 2 million people to pressure Hamas to .
The revised proposal required Hamas to release half of its remaining hostages — a key bargaining tool for the group — in return for extending the ceasefire and a promise of negotiations for a permanent truce. Israel did not mention releasing additional Palestinian prisoners, which had been a crucial element of the first phase.
Hamas rejected the new proposal, accusing Israel of attempting to undermine the existing agreement.
Is the ceasefire over?
Unless mediators intervene, Israel’s unexpected attack could signal a complete return to hostilities in the 17-month conflict that has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians and .
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly threatened to restart the war, stated that he authorized the strikes due to Hamas’s rejection of the revised proposal. He affirmed that Israel “will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength.”
The White House indicated that it was consulted and expressed support for Israel’s actions.
Hamas accused Netanyahu of disrupting the ceasefire agreement and endangering the remaining hostages. In a statement, the group urged mediators to hold Israel “fully responsible for violating and overturning the agreement.”
The attack occurred during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. While no significant combat had taken place in Gaza since the ceasefire began on January 19, Israeli strikes had killed dozens of Palestinians who the military claimed had entered unauthorized areas, participated in militant activities, or otherwise breached the truce.
What is Netanyahu’s situation?
Netanyahu has , with large-scale protests planned in response to his management of the hostage crisis and his decision to dismiss the head of Israel’s internal security agency.
Families of hostages still held in Gaza voiced their anxiety on Tuesday regarding their loved ones. “We are shocked, angry, and terrified by the deliberate dismantling of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas,” stated the Hostages Families Forum.
However, Netanyahu has also faced pressure from his hard-line allies to reject any agreement in Gaza that does not achieve the destruction of Hamas. Negotiations with Hamas regarding a second phase could have led to demands for compromises on the future governance of Gaza.
Netanyahu faces an end-of-the-month deadline to pass a budget, or his government will collapse, triggering early elections. He has struggled to reach an agreement with coalition partners. Resuming the war could bring back former Cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, potentially providing the prime minister with additional support for what is anticipated to be a close vote.
Netanyahu’s critics have also alleged that his dismissal of the security agency chief and other dismissals are part of a wider campaign to undermine independent government institutions.
They argue that he is doing this to retain power while and facing public pressure to accept his own responsibility for policy failures in the lead-up to Hamas’ surprise attack on Oct. 7, 2023.
What else is happening?
A resumption of fighting in Gaza could have wider implications for the region.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, condemned the Israeli strikes, stating that “the Palestinian people will not be left alone in this battle,” suggesting a potential resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The United States launched new airstrikes over the weekend targeting the in Yemen in retaliation for its attacks on shipping. At least 53 people were reported killed. ore.
on Monday warned Iran would for any further Houthi attacks, threatening to widen the conflict further.
New violence in Gaza could also jeopardize the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hezbollah in November, which halted months of deadly exchanges of fire along the Israeli-Lebanon border.
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Rising reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writers Lee Keath in Cairo Josef Federman in Jerusalam and Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.