On Sunday, Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah engaged in their most intense exchange of fire after months of escalating attacks and counterattacks that have raised serious concerns about a full-scale war.
By midday, the exchange of fire had ceased, with both sides claiming their targets were purely military. Israeli strikes killed three militants in Lebanon, and the Israeli military reported a soldier killed by either an incoming fire interceptor or shrapnel. However, the situation remains fraught with tension.
Here’s a breakdown of the current situation:
What transpired early Sunday?
Israel stated that approximately 100 warplanes launched airstrikes targeting thousands of rocket launchers across southern Lebanon to preempt an imminent Hezbollah attack. Hezbollah claimed to have launched hundreds of rockets and drones aimed at military bases and missile defense positions in northern Israel and the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights.
Hezbollah characterized the attack as an initial response to the targeted killing of , in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month. They declared the completion of their military operations for Sunday but Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated they “reserve the right to respond at a later time” if the results of Sunday’s attack, aimed at a military intelligence base near Tel Aviv, are insufficient.
Israel’s military countered that their intelligence base near Tel Aviv was not hit. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, indicated that an initial assessment revealed “very little damage” in Israel.
How probable is an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah?
Sunday’s exchange of fire did not trigger the long-dreaded war, and the heavy firepower coupled with the absence of civilian casualties may allow both sides to claim a form of victory and de-escalate. However, tensions remain extremely high.
Hezbollah initiated rocket and drone attacks against Israel shortly after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which was sparked by Hamas’ surprise attack into Israel on Oct. 7. Hezbollah and Hamas are allies, both supported by Iran. Israel has retaliated with airstrikes, and the near-daily exchanges have escalated significantly in recent months.
Over 500 individuals have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes since Oct. 8, primarily Hezbollah and other armed group fighters, but also over 100 civilians and noncombatants. In northern Israel, 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed by attacks from Lebanon. Tens of thousands of individuals have been displaced on both sides of the tense border.
Israel has pledged to restore tranquility to the border, allowing its citizens to return to their homes. They have stated their preference for a diplomatic resolution through U.S. and other mediators but will resort to force if necessary. Hezbollah officials have declared that the group does not seek a wider war but is prepared for one.
What would a war between Israel and Hezbollah look like?
Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war in 2006 that left substantial parts of southern Beirut and southern Lebanon in ruins, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides.
Everyone anticipates that any future war would be considerably worse.
Hezbollah possesses an estimated 150,000 rockets and is capable of striking all parts of Israel. They have also developed a sophisticated fleet of drones and have been experimenting with precision-guided missiles. A full-scale war could compel hundreds of thousands of Israelis to evacuate, cripple the Israeli economy and force the Israeli army, already engaged in Gaza, to fight on two fronts.
Israel has vowed a devastating response to any major Hezbollah attack, potentially causing widespread destruction of Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure and economy, which has been grappling with a severe crisis for years. Beirut’s southern suburbs, and towns and villages across southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s main strongholds are located, would likely be decimated.
An Israeli ground invasion to eliminate Hezbollah could drag on for years. The militant group is significantly more advanced and better-armed than Hamas in Gaza, which is still fighting despite 10 months of intense Israeli bombardment and ground operations.
Would a war involve the United States, Iran and other nations?
An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into a regional conflict.
Iran is a key supporter of Hezbollah, Hamas and other militant groups in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Iran has vowed to retaliate for the killing of Hamas’ top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in a blast in its capital last month, widely attributed to Israel. Israel has not confirmed its involvement.
Iran-backed groups across the region have repeatedly attacked Israeli, U.S. and international targets since the start of the war in Gaza and could intensify these attacks to relieve pressure on Hezbollah.
The United States, meanwhile, has pledged unwavering support for Israel and has deployed a significant amount of military assets to the Middle East in recent weeks to deter any retaliatory strike by Iran or Hezbollah. The USS Abraham Lincoln recently joined another aircraft carrier strike group in the region.
A U.S.-led coalition helped destroy hundreds of missiles and drones launched by Iran towards Israel in April in response to an apparent Israeli strike in Syria that killed two Iranian generals. Both sides downplayed an apparent Israeli counterstrike on Iran, and tensions gradually eased.
What implications does this have for ceasefire efforts in Gaza?
The United States, Egypt and Qatar have been engaged in months of negotiations to broker a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the release of numerous hostages held by Hamas. These efforts have gained urgency in recent weeks, as diplomats view such a deal as the best chance to de-escalate regional tensions.
Hezbollah has stated that it will cease its attacks along the border if a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza. It remains unclear whether Hezbollah or Iran would halt or reduce their threatened retaliatory strikes over the killing of Shukur and Haniyeh, but neither desires to be seen as hindering any ceasefire deal.
Despite intensive diplomacy, significant gaps remain, including Israel’s demand for a lasting presence along two strategic corridors in Gaza, a request rejected by Hamas and Egypt. High-level talks were held in Egypt on Sunday.