Early Friday, Israel reportedly initiated a multi-day operation targeting a growing list of sites and high-ranking officials within the Iranian regime. Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks, potentially leading Israel to broaden its targets.
Following the endless bloodshed since Hamas’s October 2023 attacks, the situation may unfortunately worsen.
Since the Islamic Republic’s establishment in 1979, hostility towards Israel has been a fundamental principle of Iranian foreign policy and a key factor in its regional strategy. For decades, their rivalry primarily involved indirect actions by Iran and covert operations by Israel.
This changed last year when direct hostilities occurred in April and October. Iran launched massive missile attacks, largely countered by Israeli and allied air defenses. Following the second strike, after Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel targeted Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities, encountering little resistance.
While Iran’s regional influence and missile/drone arsenal proved ineffective, concerns remained about its growing nuclear program, considered an existential threat by Israel. Tehran expanded its nuclear activities after President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal. President Joe Biden’s Administration attempted unsuccessfully to revive it. In March, Trump announced renewed negotiations with Iran, leading to five rounds of talks in Muscat and Rome.
For Iran, seeking sanctions relief, a deal with the U.S. depended on concessions it opposed: dismantling its nuclear program or halting domestic uranium enrichment. Israel prioritized eliminating, not just restricting, fissile material production. President Trump views a potential Israeli military strike as leverage for a diplomatic agreement.
Currently, the main concern is the potential for escalation. Worst-case scenarios include a cycle of Israeli and Iranian counterstrikes involving the U.S., Iran’s allies, and regional states, causing civilian casualties and destabilizing global markets. Iran might try to rebuild its nuclear program with the explicit goal of quickly developing a deterrent weapon. Another dire possibility is the fall of the Tehran regime, leading to a power struggle, chaos, or a more hardline regime with nuclear weapons.
A solution might exist, albeit unlikely. Trump still aims for a deal with Iran, which could offer concessions if hostilities with Israel cease. If Iran compromises to avoid greater destruction, Trump might pressure Israel to end the escalation.
Iran’s government has previously made concessions for survival in dire situations threatening the regime. However, facing perhaps its gravest crisis since the 1980s war with Iraq, it might double down, harming its people and the region.
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