`
March 11 was a significant day. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was apprehended at Manila International Airport under an arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity.
Former Philippine Senator , a long-time critic of Duterte who was previously acquitted of drug-related charges after nearly seven years of imprisonment, stated, “This is deeply personal for me,” in . Randy delos Santos, the uncle of a teenager killed in a 2017 police anti-drug operation in Manila, told the Associated Press that it was “a big, long-awaited day for justice.”
Duterte spearheaded a crackdown on illegal drugs for over two decades, initially as Davao City’s mayor and subsequently as the Philippine President from 2016 to 2022. This campaign resulted in a death toll as high as , predominantly affecting impoverished Filipinos.
Duterte’s arrest, coupled with the current Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Administration’s cooperation, signifies a shift in the nation’s political landscape.
Jean Encinas-Franco, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, notes that “In the short term, this marks the beginning of the end for the Duterte political dynasty.”
Duterte, often referred to as “Asia’s Trump” due to his rhetoric and unconventional governing style, secured a landslide victory in the presidential election almost a decade ago, promising a relentless crackdown on crime.
Upon assuming office, he fulfilled his promise through his “war on drugs.” He also initiated and suppressed dissent from critics and .
Despite sparking global condemnation, Duterte and his political approach maintained at home, even after his presidency. His daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, leveraging her family’s legacy, won the Vice Presidency in 2022 with a significant margin, while , himself the son of a former dictator who governed the Philippines from 1965 to 1986.
However, a power struggle has strained the relationship between the two families. A poll by indicates Duterte-Carpio as a leading contender in the 2028 presidential elections, and the elder Duterte is as mayor of Davao City in the upcoming May midterm elections.
Meanwhile, the Duterte patriarch and President Marcos have . The former President has also accused his successor of toward a dictatorship. Last November, Vice President Duterte-Carpio even to have Marcos assassinated.
These remarks, along with other allegations against Duterte-Carpio, prompted the House of Representatives, largely composed of Marcos allies, to her last month.
Marcos had previously expressed his refusal to cooperate with the . However, in January, his administration stated that it would “” if the ICC issues an Interpol arrest warrant.
Richard Heydarian, a Manila-based political analyst and senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines, told TIME that with the arrest, the Marcos Administration has “cut off the head of the snake” after a period of less direct confrontation with the family. He suggests that Duterte’s potential transfer to The Hague could encourage Marcos’ allies in the Senate to against Duterte-Carpio.
Political analyst Antonio Contreras believes it’s premature to assess the impact of Duterte’s arrest on the upcoming local elections or the future 2028 presidential race. However, he notes that the “feeling of invincibility before that [Duterte] can no longer be held accountable” is now being challenged.