Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that he would not yield to pressure, though he admitted that “some losses are expected.” This statement appears to be an understatement. The new sanctions, the initial ones of President Donald Trump’s second term, are designed to target Russia’s military finances by implementing a complete oil embargo.
This represents a significant impact. However, effective enforcement will be crucial. Russia is likely to attempt illicit oil sales, employing its clandestine fleet and numerous intermediaries such as middlemen, front companies, entities not yet under sanctions, and fraudulent documentation. The U.S. will need to exert considerable effort to uncover and dismantle Russia’s covert oil operations.
This involves imposing sanctions on Russia’s entire fleet of illicit tankers, as well as targeting the ports, fuel providers, and other essential services these vessels depend on. The White House might also sanction third-party nations that acquire Russian oil, regardless of its origin. These sanctions could be lifted if buying countries agree to reduce their purchase volumes bi-annually; a practical solution aimed at ensuring compliance and promoting engagement.
These actions would intensify the downward pressure on Russian oil prices, compelling Russia to sell its crude at a considerable discount. Furthermore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that these sanctions might not be the final measures.
This marks a significant development as Trump has finally transitioned from rhetoric to concrete action. He implemented these sanctions following a recent phone conversation with Putin. Despite reports that last Friday’s meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky devolved into a “shouting match,” it was neither a complete failure nor a concession to Putin. This suggests Trump will not be easily swayed.
Additionally, these new sanctions reportedly succeeded the authorization for Ukraine to employ British-made Storm Shadow missiles for deep strikes within Russia. While not as significant as providing U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, it represents a move in that direction and further indicates the U.S.’s capacity to escalate both military and economic pressure.
The U.S. sanctions were introduced after the UK’s decision on October 15 to take similar measures. Moreover, the E.U. on Thursday unveiled its latest package of sanctions against Russia, which includes substantial new provisions, particularly targeting the Russian energy sector.
Collectively, these actions serve as a clear warning to Putin, urging him to abandon his maximalist objectives in Ukraine and to engage seriously in ending the conflict. Trump has also canceled the Budapest summit with Putin, signaling a firm stance.
Publicly, Trump expressed a somewhat regretful tone concerning the U.S. sanctions. He remains committed to mediating a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, suggesting he might view both sides as partially responsible for the war’s origin and ongoing nature. He also implied that such a deal could lead to the removal of sanctions.
Nonetheless, this constitutes a constructive and important move. Putin has consistently sought a victory over Ukraine from Trump, which Putin’s armies have been unable to secure. Considering some of Trump’s previous statements about Ukraine, this expectation might not have been entirely unfounded. However, Putin is now overplaying his hand, and Trump has definitively refused.
Should Putin recognize that the U.S. possesses a broader range of instruments, he might de-escalate sufficiently for Ukraine—the portion of its territory remaining outside Russian dominion—to persist as a free and sovereign nation.
Trump holds a strong position. He has not yet deployed all his available resources but has now decisively entered the engagement.