(SeaPRwire) –
By: Julian Holbrooke
Donald Trump’s repeated threats to bomb Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain read like empty tough talk. The lines do not line up with basic on-the-ground intelligence. They ignore hard technical limits of U.S. bunker-busting weapons. The bluster risks blowing up the fragile June 17 ceasefire outright. It distracts from the unaccounted nuclear material posing real proliferation risk. None of the public rhetoric matches what independent analysts and inspectors have documented about the site for years.
Pickaxe Mountain sits 2 kilometers from Iran’s Natanz nuclear complex. It lies roughly 220 kilometers south of Tehran. The site is known locally as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La. Construction began in 2020, after a sabotage fire destroyed Natanz’s above-ground centrifuge assembly halls. U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Natanz twice in recent years. The first strike came in June 2025, alongside hits on two other nuclear sites. Trump claimed those raids “completely and totally obliterated” targeted facilities. The second hit Natanz’s entrances in the opening days of the February 2026 war. The Institute for Science and International Security confirms Pickaxe Mountain was never seriously targeted in those raids. The only recorded strike near the site destroyed a single air defense vehicle on a spoil pile. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Tuesday the U.S. has no record of centrifuges moved into the site. He still promised to strike the area “probably pretty soon” regardless. He first issued that specific threat in a July 13 interview, telling reporters to warn Iranians to prepare. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei addressed the threats on July 22. He referred to the site by its Persian name, Kolang Kouh. He stated no nuclear activity takes place at the mountain site. He noted all Iranian nuclear activities have been fully declared to the IAEA per safeguards rules. He framed the U.S. fixation on the site as a fabricated pretext for further aggression.
The technical reality of the site stands in stark contrast to public threats. Carnegie Endowment expert James Acton estimates the facility sits at least 100 meters underground. No existing conventional weapon can destroy a bunker that deep. The best any strike can do is collapse tunnel entrances to delay access. Satellite imagery from ISIS shows construction is still ongoing. The site is not yet operational. Analysts with the think tank flag the site as a prime future candidate. It could host any reconstitution of Iran’s centrifuge program. It could support everything from component manufacturing to assembly to full enrichment work. Acton notes the core legitimate concern is the site’s flexible design. Even if not originally built as an enrichment plant, it could easily be repurposed for that use. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi told PBS in March that inspectors have never been granted access to the mountain. The agency has not verified Iran’s centrifuge capacity or production since 2021. Iran previously announced plans to conduct nuclear activity at the site. It forms part of a long-running push to move sensitive assets deep underground. The IAEA estimates roughly 970 pounds of enriched uranium sits in Isfahan tunnel complexes 80 miles from Natanz. That stockpile has been the core of nonproliferation concerns for years. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed in April to defend nuclear capabilities as national assets. He framed the technology as equal in importance to the country’s land, sea and air borders. Trump has repeatedly claimed he “follows the material” when tracking nuclear risk. His latest comments came ahead of the U.S. military’s 13th consecutive evening of strikes on Iran. The resumed conflict, which restarted July 7, has largely centered on skirmishes over the Strait of Hormuz. The June 17 interim ceasefire set a 60-day window for technical nuclear talks. Terms required Iran to downblend existing enriched stockpiles on site under IAEA supervision. That window is set to expire in mid-August. The public threats serve two clear immediate goals. They shore up Trump’s hardline domestic credentials ahead of any negotiated deal. They also apply maximum pressure on Tehran as the ceasefire deadline draws near.
Striking Pickaxe Mountain will not eliminate Iran’s nuclear technical know-how. It will not secure or destroy the known stockpiles of enriched uranium. It will only collapse remaining diplomatic off-ramps. It will push all future sensitive Iranian nuclear work further out of inspectors’ line of sight.
Author bio: Julian Holbrooke, an international relations analyst covering Middle East security and nuclear nonproliferation for major European daily newspapers.