Many Americans dependent on health insurance via the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, are set to commence enrollment for their 2026 plans this Saturday. However, premiums for the upcoming year might see substantial increases for millions of families.
Enhanced premium tax credits, introduced during the pandemic, are a focal point of the current government shutdown and are largely responsible for the anticipated premium increases in the coming year.
Over are currently insured by the ACA, which was established 15 years ago to broaden access to affordable healthcare. Experts caution that average premiums may climb by, with certain families encountering sharper hikes as government subsidies lapse and marketplace prices go up.
Here’s an overview of the factors contributing to these potential cost increases.
Understanding the Affordable Care Act
The Affordable Care Act, launched in during the Obama Administration, offers subsidized health insurance to Americans whose incomes range from 100% to 400% of the federal poverty line. These subsidies——aim to lower the monthly premium costs for households with low to moderate incomes.
The poverty guideline differs based on family size, spanning from $15,650 for a single person to $54,150 for an eight-person household. Families earning below 138% of the poverty level also qualify for expanded Medicaid coverage, though, such as Texas, Florida, and Georgia, have not implemented this expansion.
Factors Driving Increased ACA Health Insurance Costs
Multiple elements are projected to escalate ACA premiums in 2026, with the most significant being the termination of enhanced premium tax credits by the close of 2025.
These subsidies—initially expanded during the pandemic and subsequently prolonged by Congress—have reduced expenses for millions of policyholders. However, with discussions concerning the current government shutdown at an impasse, legislators have not yet reached a consensus on their renewal. Democrats contend that the Republican rejection of extending these credits will result in substantial rises for working families, whereas Republicans assert that the initiative contributes to inefficiency and deception.
“Healthcare premiums are on the verge of skyrocketing. Yet, Republicans have remained oblivious throughout the duration of the shutdown,” stated a Democrat leader in the Senate.
Should Congress fail to act, premiums might more than double, potentially rising by an average of 114%, according to the. The organization estimates that of the 24 million Americans presently holding ACA plans would experience this impact.
Which Groups Will Face the Greatest Impact?
Should the subsidies expire, middle-income households that no longer meet the criteria for tax credits will encounter the most significant cost escalations.
indicate that a Virginia family might experience deductibles climbing from $800 to $20,000 in the coming year. In Idaho, certain households might incur an extra $100 monthly, while a Maryland family could see premiums increase by $500 per month.
For legal immigrants, premium subsidies are also set to cease in 2026. Legal residents who do not qualify for Medicaid due to their immigration status and whose earnings are below 100% of the poverty level will no longer be eligible for ACA tax credits.
Republicans assert that existing ACA provisions are excessively liberal. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated that preserving them is equivalent to providing “free healthcare for illegal immigrants.”
Vice President J.D. Vance has similarly alleged that the tax credits have encouraged extravagance and deception. “Some individuals rightfully receive the tax credits, but we believe many tax credits are directed towards considerable waste and fraud within the insurance sector. Therefore, our aim is to ensure these tax credits reach those genuinely in need,” he stated in an interview on October 12.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, proposed by President Donald Trump and signed into law this July, has also introduced for those eligible for ACA, complicating the enrollment process for some individuals. These modifications to the Act, slated to persist until 2034, indicate that up to 1.7 million Americans will become ineligible for such coverage by 2034.
The Trump Administration’s Impact on the ACA
President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which became law in July, contains clauses that will redefine eligibility for ACA subsidies throughout the upcoming decade. The Administration claims these reforms aim to cut expenses and eradicate misuse, but KFF projects that up to 1.7 million Americans might forfeit ACA coverage by 2034 under the revised regulations.
ACA Enrollment Period for Americans
Enrollment for the ACA commences on November 1st. Individuals have until December 15th to sign up for or modify plans for coverage beginning January 1st. Concurrently, January 15th marks the final day to enroll in or adjust marketplace health plans for the year. Beyond this deadline, individuals may only enroll in or change plans if they meet the criteria for a “Special Enrollment Period.”
Additional information and your state’s specific enrollment schedule can be found on the website.