A recent discussion on the role of empathy in diplomacy by academic Claire Yorke highlighted the importance of participants attempting, to some extent, to understand the perspective of even their fiercest adversaries. However, a contrary approach appears to have taken hold, particularly concerning a dispute.
During a session in the Diet, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that a Taiwan emergency involving “warships and the use of force” would undoubtedly pose an existential threat to Japan. She further warned that such circumstances would necessitate assuming a “worst-case scenario.” These statements were made shortly after Takaichi had met with Xi Jinping in South Korea and immediately drew sharp criticism from Beijing. Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, declared, “We have no choice but to sever that dirty neck that has been thrust at us without hesitation. Are you ready?” This was followed by a forceful response from Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Japan and China share a complex past. Imperial Japan initiated a conflict that evolved into a full-scale war, resulting in millions of fatalities. While this conflict is mostly outside of living memory, it profoundly impacts their relationship; China consistently remembers, while Japan, in Beijing’s view, frequently appears to forget. Despite a significant economic partnership today, with two-way trade exceeding in 2024, making Japan’s second-largest export market after the U.S., underlying currents of resentment, sensitivity, and mistrust persist.
Minor incidents can easily destabilize Sino-Japanese relations. For instance, in 2004, the Japanese soccer team’s victory over China in the Asia Cup final in Beijing led to unrest. Years later, in 2010, an incident involving a fishing boat in contested waters triggered a major dispute, impacting Japan’s industry which relies heavily on rare earth minerals. When both Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and later Shinzo Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honored, Beijing registered profound displeasure and offense. Furthermore, Xi has still not made the relatively short trip to Tokyo, despite having visited numerous other countries.
This relationship has never been, and likely will never be, straightforward.
Japan, bound by a pacifist post-war constitution, maintains a self-defense force with significant capabilities. The volatility and lack of clarity from its primary security partner, the U.S.—which still stations troops on Okinawa—have fostered a more independent and self-reliant stance, echoing a global trend. Presently, Japan feels compelled to consider its self-preservation. Takaichi’s remarks can be seen, to an extent, as a reflection of this sentiment, indicating that Japan’s commitment to pacifism is being challenged unlike ever before.
Fortunately, since 1945, Japan and China have confined their conflicts to rhetorical exchanges, avoiding any physical confrontation. However, while some may commend Japan’s new Prime Minister for her more assertive rhetoric and posture towards China, it’s crucial to consider the potential repercussions should the situation escalate. Even Chinese moderates often adopt stringent viewpoints regarding their historical rivals. And while Chinese tourists contribute significantly to Japan’s economy, a strong nationalistic sentiment can quickly emerge if they perceive a lack of respect for their modern history, or if Japan appears overly aggressive and militaristic once more.
It’s vital to recognize that China is unlikely to react dispassionately or rationally on the Taiwan issue if cornered. This doesn’t necessarily imply a definite plan to invade in the near future, but it certainly signals an period of heightened tension and danger. Should the “worst-case scenario,” as Takaichi described, materialize, it would usher in a new global order—one that would violently and profoundly dismantle our current reality. This current world, despite its imperfections, largely sustains a measure of international cooperation.
Those advocating for a definitive confrontation, both within and beyond China and Japan, must recall the insightful advice of the renowned Prussian military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz. He noted that a crucial element of conflict is how events rapidly intensify, becoming unpredictable, and leaving everything to fate. A conflict involving China and Taiwan could very easily expand from a regional issue into a global war, drawing in not only Japan but also the U.S. and other nations. Such a cost would be immense.
U.S. President Donald Trump appears to comprehend the seriousness of the situation, and this week advised Takaichi to refrain from any additional escalations.
It would be more beneficial for all parties if Japan and China returned to the uncomfortable yet practical relationship they have largely maintained over the past seven decades, and exerted every effort to prevent that “worst case” scenario from ever materializing.