Hurricane Melissa, now a major Category 4 storm, has intensified in the Caribbean, posing a severe threat of catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding to Jamaica and Haiti.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the hurricane underwent “rapid” intensification during the weekend before its strength stabilized, though there remains a warning that it could escalate to a Category 5.
On Sunday, Hurricane Melissa maintained winds close to 140 mph, and the NHC stated in a bulletin that it is projected to remain a “powerful major hurricane” upon hitting Jamaica Monday night. The NHC strongly advised Jamaican residents to “seek shelter now.”
The NHC’s bulletin for Jamaica anticipates “extensive infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication disruptions, and community isolation.” The hurricane’s slow westward progression suggests a high probability of intense, hazardous rainfall in specific areas, with total accumulations estimated between 15 and 30 inches, potentially reaching 40 inches.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) issued a warning for “life-threatening and catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides across parts of Jamaica and Hispaniola throughout the week. A hurricane warning is active for certain regions of Jamaica, while southwestern Haiti and Cuba are under a hurricane watch.
Evan Thompson, Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, informed local media that Melissa has the potential to surpass the severity of previous storms that have impacted the island, such as Hurricane Gilbert (1988) and Hurricane Beryl (2024), both of which caused widespread devastation in Jamaica.
Thompson conveyed to the Observer, “We have not encountered a situation like this previously, making it crucial to regard this as an exceptional event.” He also cautioned coastal residents in St Thomas, Portland, Kingston, St Andrew, St Mary, St Catherine, Manchester, and Clarendon to remain vigilant for storm surge.
A research group noted that Jamaica’s storm surge risk is comparatively low due to a scarcity of “low-lying coastal areas.” However, the inland flood risk is assessed as “very high.”
The NHC issued a similar warning for “catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides” in southwestern Haiti, anticipated through midweek, which could lead to “extensive infrastructural damage and community isolation.” The Dominican Republic also faces a threat of catastrophic flash flooding and landslides.
Melissa has already resulted in at least three fatalities in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.
Melissa occurs amidst what experts characterize as a significant season, following several financially impactful ones, and just a year after much of the southern United States experienced disruptions from severe weather, including Hurricane Milton.
This year, significant reductions by the Trump Administration to government personnel, projects, and agencies led to the elimination of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s climate disaster database.
While Melissa is projected to influence the Caribbean through the week, its potential trajectory toward the United States remains uncertain. Current forecasts suggest that Florida will primarily experience rip currents and waves from the storm.