China put on a grand display on Wednesday. Tens of thousands of onlookers in Beijing witnessed the People’s Republic showcasing its latest military assets, including armored vehicles, tanks, and infantry whose synchronized drill movements impressed observers worldwide. Approximately 26 global leaders, among them Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, joined President Xi Jinping in attendance.
This meticulously staged event took place two days after Xi hosted the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, which gathered not only leaders often viewed critically by the West but also various traditional U.S. allies.
The SCO has transformed significantly. A quarter-century ago, around the time Putin came to power and long before Xi and Modi gained prominence, the SCO functioned as a low-profile forum where China and a handful of Central Asian nations aimed to assert a degree of influence. Today, however, the SCO stands as the world’s largest regional bloc, encompassing a substantial portion of the global economy.
The nations comprising the SCO generally avoid rigid allegiances. Nevertheless, if there’s a unifying factor, it’s their shared grievances against the U.S.-led global order. China is currently in the second phase of a trade dispute initiated six years ago by the U.S. during its previous administration. Russia continues to contend with ongoing U.S. support for Ukraine following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion. India, meanwhile, is navigating trade challenges due to its deviation from the U.S. administration’s trade expectations.
The fact that Kim Jong Un was present, marking a historic first for a North Korean leader at such an event, underscores that this group represents a coalition of disaffected powers—a collection China is eager to bring together. After all, Pyongyang has consistently been Washington’s most enduring antagonist. Both China and Russia have, in contrast, experienced much longer and more extensive periods of cooperation with the U.S.
Despite these connections, profound disparities persist among these nations. They are not united by mutual trust, common values, or a shared vision. While the primary attendees at the SCO summit and military parade may object to a world order still dominated by the U.S., they harbor significant, and sometimes irreconcilable, differences regarding their aspirations for the future.
The implications are greatest for China. Despite its efforts to foster collaboration, Xi does not consider any other SCO member to be in the same economic or geopolitical league. China’s economy is eight times larger than Russia’s and three times that of India. Beijing is still pursuing the possibility of securing highly favorable agreements, a feat it may achieve where other nations cannot.
Russia and India’s perspectives on China’s rising influence are evident from their recent histories. Modi is as nationalistic as Xi and is undoubtedly irked by the assertiveness of its powerful eastern neighbor. New Delhi has taken actions such as banning various China-related apps. India holds a rival vision for itself as a major global power, nurturing the ambition to one day stand as an equal to both China and the U.S. Tellingly, it is China, rather than other P5 members, that has resisted India’s efforts to permanently join the U.N. Security Council.
For Russia, the challenge lies in engaging with a powerful nation with which it shares some strategic interests but also maintains considerable disagreements. Anyone who has visited Russia will recall that when the topic of China arises, there are often underlying concerns about its territorial intentions in Russia’s Far East. Putin is also a leader known for his pride. It is interesting to speculate what his true feelings might be about increasingly appearing as a junior partner to Beijing these days.
If there’s one overarching message from the SCO, it’s how many of these vastly different powers find it necessary to cooperate due to the inconsistencies and challenges presented by the U.S. administration. However, Wednesday’s military parade, the largest ever hosted by China, also demonstrates that whatever shape the emerging world order takes, it will be guided by stark realism, self-interest, and opportunism.
China may well discover that leading a rival bloc proves significantly more difficult than simply operating within the established system, which now appears to be in decline.