During the U.S. President’s first term and the commencement of his second, he and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to share a unique relationship. Shared perspectives on the importance of strongman domestic governance and a common goal to check positioned them as well-aligned allies. However, circumstances have evolved. While mutual interests continue to serve as the bedrock of relations between the U.S. and Modi’s India, the personal trust that underpinned their bond has now .
One might assume the primary source of tension between the two leaders stems from Trump’s pursuit of leverage over Russia’s Vladimir Putin—specifically, his endeavor to halt India’s to compel Putin into negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Nevertheless, a different armed confrontation is at the core of the friction.
When erupted in May between India and Pakistan following a in Indian-controlled Kashmir, Trump eagerly seized the opportunity to act as a peacemaker. He assigned Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio the task of de-escalating tensions. Despite India’s plans for a joint declaration of an agreement to cease hostilities, Trump claimed personal credit, and Pakistan intensified Modi’s anger by suggesting Trump deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. Trump then responded to a Pakistani diplomatic charm offensive with lucrative investment deals in energy, cryptocurrencies, and critical minerals. His request that Modi lend his support to the U.S. President’s further estranged the Indian Prime Minister, who began to .
This provides the context for Trump’s decision in August to impose, ostensibly due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Modi’s response? He accepted an invitation from China’s Xi Jinping to a gathering of several world leaders, , at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, an event intended to highlight China’s expanding diplomatic influence. This marked Modi’s first visit to China in seven years. A car ride and an hour-long discussion with Putin in the Russian President’s limousine conveyed an unequivocal message of defiance, indicating that India and its leader would not be coerced by the White House.
Modi’s choice to depart Beijing before a triumphant military parade reflects that enduring interests continue to define the India-China relationship. Washington and Delhi still share a of China’s might and Xi’s intention to wield it.
Yet, there are now indications that Washington and New Delhi are moving toward mitigating damage to the relationship. In particular, recent developments render it that the U.S. and India will announce a trade agreement by the close of this year.
On the digital front, optimism for a deal increased on Sept. 22 when the two governments agreed not to demand information on source code or other proprietary knowledge as a prerequisite for U.S. companies operating in India. U.S. negotiators also hope India will lift restrictions on the import of American soy, a sector made apprehensive by the potential impact of tariffs on the sale of their products, especially as China reduces its purchases of American produce. Finally, Modi and Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Malaysia in October. Such a meeting would significantly contribute to easing tensions and helping negotiators achieve an agreement on a trade deal.
However, none of this will restore the personal trust that has been lost between Trump and Modi. Shared geopolitical and commercial interests will maintain a solid foundation for the relationship and continue the longer-term progress of broadening and deepening U.S.-India relations. Nevertheless, the transactional basis of relations between the two leaders will persist. New points of contention will emerge, as seen with Trump’s recent announcement of a imposed on H-1B visas, which high-skilled foreign workers an opportunity to work in the U.S. Approximately 70% of H-1B visa holders are Indian nationals.
Modi must be wondering, what will Trump introduce next?