For two and a half years, Russia has been systematically attacking Ukrainian grain silos, schools, hospitals, power plants, and other critical infrastructure as part of its hybrid war strategy. The Kremlin’s inability to achieve military victory has led to a shift towards rendering the country uninhabitable. This strategy is not new, but 2024 has witnessed a surge in attacks on basic infrastructure with unprecedented accuracy and ferocity. The primary target is now the country’s power sector, specifically its ability to generate electricity.
Between 2022 and 2024, Russia targeted approximately 50% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including forcing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant offline with repeated strikes, and the bombing of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam. Transmission lines and electrical substations were also frequently targeted. However, Ukrainian engineering and power line teams demonstrated exceptional diligence, speed, and proficiency in repairing them. While difficulties in procuring replacement parts sometimes extended blackouts, Ukraine recovered relatively quickly, successfully weathering both the winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. This time, however, the situation is vastly different.
Approximately 60% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been disabled due to the increasing precision of Russian bombs, drone strikes, and rocket attacks, which are now specifically targeting power plants and electrical substations. The country is currently experiencing the worst power shortages since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Ukraine’s ability to regenerate and rebuild has been overwhelmed, at least for the immediate future. Over 30% of power generation capacity alone has been taken out just since March. More hydroelectric plants have been destroyed, including the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, the largest still operational. Solar power facilities have also been targeted, and every single one of the country’s thermal power plants—coal and natural gas burning—has been hit, with only two of the original 13 remaining operational. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, has lost 70% of its generation capacity. The current national power deficit is estimated to be around 3,000 MW.
Four months of relentless strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have inflicted such significant damage that many areas are now limited to just 10 hours of electricity per day—and only four hours for some cities. It will take years to rebuild. Come winter, this situation is expected to deteriorate significantly. DTEK executives estimate that winter blackouts could reach up to 18 hours per day. Moreover, several of the destroyed power plants were combined electricity and heating facilities, meaning that not only will it be dark, but also exceptionally cold during Ukraine’s notoriously harsh winters. The lack of heat and access to essential healthcare services will almost certainly result in fatalities.
Numerous proposals and ideas are being explored to help Ukraine survive the upcoming winter. Ukrenergo, the national electricity grid company, is collaborating with both public and private sectors to bring new generation and storage capacity online, prioritizing the development of distributed power systems over centralized facilities. Ukraine is already receiving electricity from Poland and other neighboring countries, but these imports are insufficient to compensate for the deficit and are also expensive. Rebuilding thermal power plants is considered unsustainable in the long run, both due to Ukraine’s climate change commitments and the decreasing availability of gas and coal under Russian sanctions. Consequently, focus is shifting towards short-term and long-term solutions. In the immediate term, private generators are becoming increasingly common across the country, for those who can afford the units and the diesel to keep them running.
While these potential solutions are gradually being implemented, Ukraine is operating in a state of partial darkness and dysfunction that is steadily undermining its resilience. The lack of power has severely impacted people’s ability to work, access banking services, receive medical treatment, use their phones or internet, and so on. Schools have been forced to close, and businesses are struggling to operate. This, in turn, is leading to reduced income for individuals and a decline in tax revenues, hindering the government’s ability to fund essential services and the war effort. Many people may eventually be forced to leave their country due to the increasingly difficult living conditions.
Despite this bleak outlook, Ukraine’s supporters should not underestimate its resilience. They should continue to provide support to Kyiv, even as global attention shifts towards other conflicts and domestic issues in the United States. Friendly countries are still seeking much-needed power grid replacement parts to send to Ukraine. Each shipment of new military aid, now including Patriot missile systems, helps Ukraine survive. Providing Ukraine with advanced air defense systems or enabling Kyiv to undertake offensive actions against Russia could significantly enhance its defensive posture. At the very least, the West should assist Ukraine in reclaiming enough of its territory to strengthen its negotiating position against Russia should real peace talks ever occur.
While Ukraine awaits further assistance, its most potent defense against Russia may be the enduring optimism of its people. Despite the brutality of war and the looming threat of winter with significant electricity shortages, only 10% of citizens are in favor of negotiating with Russia. As many as 60% believe Ukraine will ultimately win the war, and 80% consider the country’s future to be promising. Their optimism should not lead to complacency among Ukraine’s backers. As many Ukrainians are quick to point out, they are a resilient people. They have to be.