My foray into the world of flying cars began unexpectedly in February 2017. I was asked to comment on the Ehang 184, a Chinese passenger drone, designed to provide automated taxi services in Dubai. The oft-quoted part of the resulting article will likely appear in my obituary:
“Dr. Wright added that he would not be volunteering for an early flight. ‘I’d have to be taken on board kicking and screaming.’”
My initial encounter with Chinese flying cars, or electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, proved to be a harbinger of things to come. China has made significant strides in this nascent technology. One of the most notable developments occurred in April when the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) granted type certification to EHang’s EH216-S, marking the first time an eVTOL received such approval anywhere. This move paves the way for commercial deployment. However, other companies are also vying for a piece of the sky. The CarryAll eVTOL from AutoFlight, another Chinese firm, recently obtained a special flight permit from CAAC, a critical step toward regulatory approval. Other homegrown Chinese competitors, such as [Redacted Name] and [Redacted Name], are also generating excitement.
Indeed, China currently accounts for approximately 50% of the world’s eVTOL models. The government has also pledged to create economic “[Redacted Information],” though details remain unclear.
It is clear that China is leading the eVTOL race. What explains this dominance, and will it be sustained? To answer these questions, we must consider the two major challenges facing all competitors in this field: one posed by technology, the other by humans.
The first challenge is straightforward: battery technology, while unlocking the eVTOL era, is now its biggest limitation. Batteries are still only capable of storing and delivering a small fraction of the energy of gasoline, our long-standing friend and foe. Until a breakthrough in battery technology occurs, the industry will be limited to premium services in niche applications. In other words, when and if a new wave of battery technology breaks over the industry and scatters the competitors, the side that rides that wave will reap the greatest rewards. China is currently on top, but perhaps the West, with its longer experience with conventional aircraft, could regain the lead.
Now, let’s turn to the second, more elusive challenge. China may be leading the pack, but there is a vast gap between their eVTOL technology and conventional passenger aircraft. This gap lies in a field that is paramount to our peace of mind every time we board a flight: reliability. How significant is this gap? The answer is approximately a factor of six zeroes, and the methods and technology to bridge this gap require decades of experience. Here, the West undoubtedly holds an advantage with its mature aviation industries and governing bodies.
So, can China overcome this “gap of six zeroes”? It’s likely, in due course. Consider the example of the Comac C919, an airliner that bears a striking resemblance to the Boeing 737, the most fiercely competitive segment of the airline market. The C919’s development was long and arduous, supported by the immense weight of the Chinese state. Despite numerous setbacks, the C919 has persevered and is now entering passenger service.
When it comes to eVTOLs, the novel technologies of this brave new world are acting as a great equalizer, with all sides scrambling to answer a whole new set of questions, further eroding the West’s traditional dominance in aviation. This point extends further: the West’s historical experience can sometimes serve as a hindrance, as there is a well-founded temptation to evaluate these new machines through the lens of familiar designs like helicopters and light aircraft. China could exploit this as another opportunity to get ahead.
The idea of flying cars is captivating, of course, and I am grateful to live in a world where these machines exist. However, I do not believe they represent the future of mass personal air transport beyond a niche slightly larger than that of today’s helicopters for the wealthy. The industry is likely to resemble our existing budget air travel, with “sub-regional” airlines operating from expansive public spaces, and looking less glamorous than I would prefer, complete with price searches on booking sites, queues, and baggage checks.
Finally, the challenges of creating eVTOLs can distract us from a related wave that leverages the same technologies and plays to China’s existing strengths: [Redacted Information].
The conflict in Ukraine has provided a stark demonstration of the potential here, with attacks being launched deep into both sides’ territory. The combination of repurposing passenger eVTOLs for cargo-only transport is a sweet spot for electric aviation. I look forward to the flying delivery trucks of the future more than the taxis.
Watch this (air)space…